The Use of Simulation Models and Human Advice to Build an Expert System for the Defense and Control of River Floods

T h i s paper p r e s e n t s an o u t l i n e on the d e s i g n o f an e x p e r t sys tem aimed a t h e l p i n g d e c i s i o n mak e r s t o o p e r a t e f l o o d c o n t r o l dams and t o p l a n c i v i l de fense i n f l o o d p r o n e . The p r o b l e m i s f i r s t d e s c r i b e d and the need f o r a n e x p e r t sys tem i s j u s t i f i e d b y the comp lex i t y o f l and use i n the a rea as w e l l as the d i f i c u l t y t o use s i m u l a t i o n models on t ime f o r p r e d i c t i o n o f damages and f o r the a n a l y s i s o f the bes t c o n t r o l d e c i s i o n s . The e x p e r t sys tem can s y n t h e s i z e the r e s u l t s o f p r e v i o u s a n a l y s i s w i t h t he models and the c r i t e r i a o f e x p e r t s and i t can be used on r e a l t i m e l i n k e d w i t h a n i n f o r m a t i o n sys tem i n c l u d i n g r a i n i n t e n s i t y d a t a and w a t e r l e v e l s a t c o n t r o l p o i n t s . The c o n t e n t s o f the da ta base o f t he i n f o r m a t i o n s y s t e m , and the g e n e r a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t he d i f f e r e n t t ypes o f r u l e s a re p r e s e n t e d . F i n a l l y , t h e g e n e r a l methodo logy f o r the d e f i n i t i o n o f t he r u l e s based o n the a r t i f i c i a l e x p e r i e n c e c r e a t e d by a p rogram o f runs o f the d i f f e r e n t s models f o r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f h y d r a u l i c b e h a v i o r i s d i s c u s s e d . The p r o j e c t is now under s t u d y by t h e Span i s h M i n i s t r y o f P u b l i c Works . 1 . I n t r o d u c t i o n One p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a t i o n o f A r t i f i c i a l I n t e l l i g e n c e t h a t has awakened t h e most i n t e r e s t o v e r t h e l a s t y e a r s i s t h a t o f e x p e r t s y s t e m s . The deve lopment o f t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r t h e sys_ t e m a t i c t r e a t m e n t o f i n e x a c t r e a s o n i n g ( S h o r t l i f f e ( 1 ) , Duda, H a r t and N i l s s o n (2) Sha fe r ( 3 ) , Lowrance (4) and Zadeh ( 5 ) , among o t h e r s ) as w e l l as t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f systems ( D e n d r a l ( 6 ) , Myc i n ( 1 ) , P r o s p e c t o r (7 ) and R l ( 8 ) ) a p p l i e d t o the w o r l d , has c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s . However , o n d e v e l o p i n g a n a p p l i c a t i o n o n these l i n e s , a l t h ough h a v i n g t o o l s a v a i l a b l e ( T e i r e s i a s ( 9 ) , Ops ( 1 0 ) , Ros ie ( 1 1 ) , e t c . ) , t h e c r i t i c a l p rob lem i s t h e s h a p i n g o f knowledge on an i s s u e i n a s e t o f r u l e s i n such a way t h a t t h e answers t o the d i f f e r e n t q u e s t i o n s a r e c o h e r e n t enough and a d j u s t e d t o t h e a c t u a l knowledge o f t h e p r o b l e m s . The p e r s o n a l e x p e r i e n c e o f the a u t h o r o f t h i s paper i n some s t i l l u n f i n i s h e d a t t e m p t s o f a p p l i c a t i o n (12) shows t h a t the d e s i g n o f t h i s se t o f r u l e s i s n o t a s i m p l e p rocess and does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y l e a d to s u c c e s s , no t so much be cause o f the inadequacy o f the concep t o f e x p e r t s y s t e m s , b u t because o f t he d i f f i c u l t y shown by the persons c o n s u l t e d , o f s h a p i n g t h e i r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f an a rea o f knowledge i n t o a s t r u c t u red agg rega te o f c o n j e c t u r e s . I t i s t h e r e f o r e c o n s i d e r e d , t h a t t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f e x p e r t susterns may be s i m p l e r i n a reas o f knowledge where i m p o r t a n t t h e o r e t i c a l s u p p o r t can b e coun ted o n , b y b u i l d i n g t he i n f e rence r u l e s i n t e g r a t i n g e lemen ts o f the d i f f e r e n t t h e o r e t i c a l s u p p o r t s o r as a s y n t h e s i s o f r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h the a p p l i c a t i o n o f mod e l s . The p r e s e n t paper d e s c r i b e s the c o n c e p t u a l f ramework on w h i c h t he d e s i g n o f an e x p e r t s y s tem is based now under s t u d y a t the M i n i s t r y o f P u b l i c Works , w h i c h s u p p o r t s t he d e c i s i o n s d u r i n g a r i s e o f w a t e r i n a f l o o d a b l e r e g i o n . A t t e n t i o n i s f ocused i n the d e f i n i t i o n o f r u l e s based on a s e t o f m a t h e m a t i c a l s i m u l a t i o n models o f the d i f f e r e n t a s p e c t s o f b e h a v i o r , a s a n e l e ment o f p r e v i o u s s u p p o r t .